For the world’s bad guys, 2011 was a dangerous year
https://dervishcom.blogspot.com/2011/12/for-worlds-bad-guys-2011-was-dangerous.html
This was a bad year for bad guys. Departing the political scene — or departing the scene altogether — were Osama bin Laden, North Korea’s “Dear Leader,” Kim Jong Il, and a trio of Arab leaders: Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi.
There isn’t much tying these farewells together. Bin Laden, who was killed by U.S. Navy SEALS in Pakistan in May, died of what might be described as unnatural but unsurprising causes. Kim, meanwhile, died of a heart attack last week but had been in failing health after a stroke several years ago. Both men could have died at any point in the past several years — 2011 just happened to be their time.
The Arab leaders, by contrast, all lost their positions (or lives) on account of unique political circumstances. They were turned out by their own citizens in a sort of intifada, a casting off, wrought by collective humiliation and frustration linked to a lack of political voice and economic opportunity.
It was not so much about a lone Tunisian fruit seller whose suicide launched a regional revolt or about social media as an organizational tool for revolution. The honest answer is that historical change occurs when sparks come into contact with kindling. World War I would have erupted absent the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand, and the Vietnam War would no doubt have started absent an incident in the Gulf of Tonkin. Any spark will do when there is enough dry wood. After decades of misrule, the Middle East was ripe for change.
The more relevant question is less “Why did it happen?” than “So what?” What difference will all these departures make? Looking back, 2011 was a year of great transition — but not of transformation.
In the case of Bin Laden, the answer is that not much will change. Even before he was killed, the al-Qaeda leader had been overtaken by events. Those gathering in the public squares of Cairo and other Middle Eastern cities were not inspired by him or his terrorism organization. He was a destroyer, not a creator, his death more milestone than turning point. Nihilism is not the stuff of legacy.
The decentralization that characterizes today’s terrorism means that, beyond Bin Laden, others will carry on the funding, planning and execution of terrorist acts for years and possibly decades to come — or until terrorism loses its legitimacy and governments and societies stop supporting and tolerating it.
Kim leaves behind an anachronistic Stalinist state. In the short run, it is unclear whether his son will be able to consolidate power — or whether he will resort to violence against South Korea in an effort to do so. If he does, he will be taking an enormous risk, as it is all but certain that South Korea would retaliate militarily.
The bigger question is the fate of North Korea. The country is a relic with an army, nuclear weapons and little else other than a long-suffering population. China, a critical source of fuel and food, as well as the gateway for much of North Korea’s trade, will be the key factor that determines the country’s future. China fears that instability in the North could lead to a flood of refugees into China and conflict on the peninsula. Even more, Chinese leaders fear the unification of Korea under the control of Seoul and within the U.S. security orbit. So they are likely to continue to prop up North Korea even while encouraging restraint and a degree of economic reform.
There isn’t much tying these farewells together. Bin Laden, who was killed by U.S. Navy SEALS in Pakistan in May, died of what might be described as unnatural but unsurprising causes. Kim, meanwhile, died of a heart attack last week but had been in failing health after a stroke several years ago. Both men could have died at any point in the past several years — 2011 just happened to be their time.
The Arab leaders, by contrast, all lost their positions (or lives) on account of unique political circumstances. They were turned out by their own citizens in a sort of intifada, a casting off, wrought by collective humiliation and frustration linked to a lack of political voice and economic opportunity.
It was not so much about a lone Tunisian fruit seller whose suicide launched a regional revolt or about social media as an organizational tool for revolution. The honest answer is that historical change occurs when sparks come into contact with kindling. World War I would have erupted absent the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand, and the Vietnam War would no doubt have started absent an incident in the Gulf of Tonkin. Any spark will do when there is enough dry wood. After decades of misrule, the Middle East was ripe for change.
The more relevant question is less “Why did it happen?” than “So what?” What difference will all these departures make? Looking back, 2011 was a year of great transition — but not of transformation.
In the case of Bin Laden, the answer is that not much will change. Even before he was killed, the al-Qaeda leader had been overtaken by events. Those gathering in the public squares of Cairo and other Middle Eastern cities were not inspired by him or his terrorism organization. He was a destroyer, not a creator, his death more milestone than turning point. Nihilism is not the stuff of legacy.
The decentralization that characterizes today’s terrorism means that, beyond Bin Laden, others will carry on the funding, planning and execution of terrorist acts for years and possibly decades to come — or until terrorism loses its legitimacy and governments and societies stop supporting and tolerating it.
Kim leaves behind an anachronistic Stalinist state. In the short run, it is unclear whether his son will be able to consolidate power — or whether he will resort to violence against South Korea in an effort to do so. If he does, he will be taking an enormous risk, as it is all but certain that South Korea would retaliate militarily.
The bigger question is the fate of North Korea. The country is a relic with an army, nuclear weapons and little else other than a long-suffering population. China, a critical source of fuel and food, as well as the gateway for much of North Korea’s trade, will be the key factor that determines the country’s future. China fears that instability in the North could lead to a flood of refugees into China and conflict on the peninsula. Even more, Chinese leaders fear the unification of Korea under the control of Seoul and within the U.S. security orbit. So they are likely to continue to prop up North Korea even while encouraging restraint and a degree of economic reform.
