Independents represent a major unknown in the N.H. primary
http://dervishcom.blogspot.com/2012/01/independents-represent-major-unknown-in.html
PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — Independents are a finicky and fickle bunch. They are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country, with an overwhelming majority saying things are badly off track. Social issues do not concern them. Many of them voted for President Obama.
And now, this critical voting bloc — which makes up as much as 45 percent of the New Hampshire electorate — is about to take center stage. If the Iowa contest exposed the conflicted mood and sharp divisions within the GOP, then New Hampshire will offer a broader snapshot of a hard-to-pin-down sliver of the electorate that has an outsize impact on elections, particularly in this swing state.
“I’m disappointed in the unemployment rate and the economy, so I’m open and I’m listening,” said Julie Gagne, 52, an independent who voted for Obama in 2008.
Now, Gagne is planning to vote in the Republican primary Jan. 10. As part of her decision-making process, she last week went to see Mitt Romney at an event outside a chowder shop.
A Republican-leaning voter who broke from the party only to back Obama, Gagne soured on the president last year, after losing her job. She said she was upset to see Obama focus on health care instead of the economy. Gagne went to see Romney in hopes of personally connecting with the man who she believes will probably be the eventual Republican nominee.
But to her dismay, Gagne found Romney “choreographed and deliberate and stiff and staged,” she said. She said she most likely will vote for Romney in the primary but reserve judgment about the general election. “I guess I’ll just keep an eye on the economy and just watch how the campaign plays out,” she said.
That sentiment is reverberating across New Hampshire and the country, as independents express their dissatisfaction with both the president and the alternatives. Their unhappiness could not matter more: Nationally, the candidates will be competing for the roughly one-third of the electorate that is considered independent and remains up for grabs.
It is not at all clear yet how Obama and his eventual Republican opponent will play with this exceptionally disgruntled group of voters, who have expressed greater displeasure with Washington than their partisan peers.
Independent voters — more than eight in 10 of whom are unhappy with the country’s political system — are more deeply unhappy with Washington than are Democrats or Republicans, and they’re far more apt than others to blame both sides in Congress.
Fully 39 percent of independent voters in Washington Post-ABC News polling said they’re “angry” about the way the federal government works, higher than the numbers among Democrats and Republicans.
They are no less critical of the particular candidates. While Obama appears to have disappointed many independents who supported him in 2008, Romney has hardly locked them down. Even though Romney holds a double-digit lead in recent New Hampshire polls, his support is weaker among independents, who have also flocked to former Utah governor Jon Huntsman and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
And now, this critical voting bloc — which makes up as much as 45 percent of the New Hampshire electorate — is about to take center stage. If the Iowa contest exposed the conflicted mood and sharp divisions within the GOP, then New Hampshire will offer a broader snapshot of a hard-to-pin-down sliver of the electorate that has an outsize impact on elections, particularly in this swing state.
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“I’m disappointed in the unemployment rate and the economy, so I’m open and I’m listening,” said Julie Gagne, 52, an independent who voted for Obama in 2008.
Now, Gagne is planning to vote in the Republican primary Jan. 10. As part of her decision-making process, she last week went to see Mitt Romney at an event outside a chowder shop.
A Republican-leaning voter who broke from the party only to back Obama, Gagne soured on the president last year, after losing her job. She said she was upset to see Obama focus on health care instead of the economy. Gagne went to see Romney in hopes of personally connecting with the man who she believes will probably be the eventual Republican nominee.
But to her dismay, Gagne found Romney “choreographed and deliberate and stiff and staged,” she said. She said she most likely will vote for Romney in the primary but reserve judgment about the general election. “I guess I’ll just keep an eye on the economy and just watch how the campaign plays out,” she said.
That sentiment is reverberating across New Hampshire and the country, as independents express their dissatisfaction with both the president and the alternatives. Their unhappiness could not matter more: Nationally, the candidates will be competing for the roughly one-third of the electorate that is considered independent and remains up for grabs.
It is not at all clear yet how Obama and his eventual Republican opponent will play with this exceptionally disgruntled group of voters, who have expressed greater displeasure with Washington than their partisan peers.
Independent voters — more than eight in 10 of whom are unhappy with the country’s political system — are more deeply unhappy with Washington than are Democrats or Republicans, and they’re far more apt than others to blame both sides in Congress.
Fully 39 percent of independent voters in Washington Post-ABC News polling said they’re “angry” about the way the federal government works, higher than the numbers among Democrats and Republicans.
They are no less critical of the particular candidates. While Obama appears to have disappointed many independents who supported him in 2008, Romney has hardly locked them down. Even though Romney holds a double-digit lead in recent New Hampshire polls, his support is weaker among independents, who have also flocked to former Utah governor Jon Huntsman and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
