If you have difficulty viewing this newsletter, click here to view as a Web page. Click here to view in plain text. |  | Tuesday, April 10, 2012 | Barack Obama's empathy edge Presidential elections are rarely won and lost on policy. Voters instead tend to choose the person they most want to be president based on who they like. And that feeling is heavily influenced by which of the candidates they believe best understands their hopes and dreams. Call it the empathy factor. And it matters. A lot. New national polling done by the Washington Post and ABC News shows that President Obama has a significant edge over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney on the empathy question — although the gap between the two men has narrowed slightly since February. Asked which man "better understands the economic problems people in this country are having", 49 percent of people said Obama while 37 percent named Romney. Nine percent said neither man understood the economic problems of regular people while two percent said both men did. A look inside the numbers tells a similar story. Among electorally critical independents, Obama enjoys a 47 percent to 35 percent edge over Romney. Women favor Obama over Romney by 20 points on the empathy question. Republicans in search of a silver lining in the numbers will note that as recently as an early February Post-ABC survey, Obama held a 17-point edge on the empathy question. In our mind, tracking how the two candidates perform on this question between now and November is the single best measure (or at least one of them) of how the race will turn out. In times of economic uncertainty — and this very clearly is one (three-quarters of people think the economy is still in recession in the Post-ABC poll) — feeling like you have a president who "gets" you is hugely critical. Neither Obama nor Romney are naturals on the empathy front. Obama, as we have written, tends toward a professorial approach to issues (not exactly warm and fuzzy) while Romney's personal wealth and awkwardness on the campaign trial make him tough to relate to. Obama starts with the edge — thanks, in no small part, to the difficulties Romney has had to endure during the first four months of the Republican presidential primary — in this crucial fight. Romney must — MUST — close the empathy gap to win this fall. |