Wonkbook: Euro zone whack-a-mole

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![]() | Tuesday, June 19, 2012 |
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As it happens, I run Wonkbook, and can make the top story whatever I want, so you might think that would be easy to achieve. But the truth is that Europe is still a huge, important mess. On Sunday, the pro-bailout party won in Greece. That should have calmed the continent down for a few days. Instead, Spanish bond yields -- you ever see my two-minute explanation of bond yields, and why you should care? -- spiked above 7 percent. So it was back to worrying about Spain. And let's say they get Spain under control. Ask yourself: Aren't we overdue for a freakout around Portugal?
Europe has become a game of bond market whack-a-mole. Every time the line begins rising too sharply in, say, Greece, the currency zone's leaders rush to whack it back down. And then, while their back is turned, Spain's bond yield spikes. So they rush to knock that back. But behind them, Italy is starting to jump...
Lately, the euro zone's whacking seems to have lost its force. The bail out of Spain brought just four hours and 40 minutes of market calm. The election results in Greece brought no market calm at all.
There are actions the member states -- particularly Germany -- could take that would end the crisis. But even if the euro zone's leaders wanted to take those actions -- and they don't -- I doubt they could get them through their legislatures. Political constraints are real constraints.
The European Central Bank could also do quite a lot to end this crisis. But as Matt Yglesias writes, rather than trying to end the crisis or keep growth and employment up, the ECB is basically using its power to force member countries to implement long-term structural reforms the ECB wants. It would be as if the Federal Reserve, rather than rescuing the economy in 2008, refused to do anything until Congress pass a deficit-reduction plan that was to its liking. That is to say, they're more interested in retaining and using their leverage over member nations than in ending the crisis. So whack-a-mole it is.
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Top stories: And...back to Spain
Party's over: Spanish bond yields hit a new record high. "The brief afterglow from Greece's vote Sunday to try to remain in the euro was quickly extinguished by a cascade of bad news out of Spain that again rattled faith in the currency bloc's ability to support its most troubled members. Fresh data from Spain's central bank showed the country's lenders were sitting on the highest level of bad loans in 18 years and that their deposits continued to leak away. The gloomy figures--and worries that consultants scouring the creaky banking system will find yet more problems--helped drive Spanish bond yields deep into territory that is widely viewed as unsustainable. The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond was at 7.18% late Monday in London, an unwelcome euro-era record for the zone's fourth-largest economy. The worrying signal demonstrates how Spain's troubles continue despite what plays out in Greece or elsewhere in the bloc." Charles Forelle and Sara Schaefer Munoz in The Wall Street Journal.
@ObsoleteDogma: New Democracy won! The euro is saved! Oh, uh, Spanish 10-years at 7.22 percent.
@mattyglesias: Italy should seriously consider default, devaluation, & capital controls while everyone's distracted with Greece & Spain.
CHARTS: Spain is doomed, in three charts.
Greece's pro-bailout parties appear close to a coalition. "Greece's two leading pro-bailout parties appeared late Monday to be headed into an alliance that would give them the majority needed to keep promised overhauls on course, but they were working to find support from others in Parliament for a broad cross-party coalition government. After formally receiving an exploratory mandate from Greek President Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, conservative New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras met with the heads of four other parties. Following those meetings, Mr. Samaras signaled a deal between him and his Socialist Pasok party counterpart, Evangelos Venizelos, would be reached within three days. 'Mr. Venizelos and I are in agreement that, no matter what, a government of national salvation must be formed within the deadline for the mandate given to me by the president,' Mr. Samaras said after the third of the four scheduled meetings." Stelios Bouras and Costas Paris in The Wall Street Journal.
Now the ball is in Europe's court. "After Greek elections eased fears that the country's exit from the euro zone was imminent, attention turned Monday to an even bigger challenge: restoring the economic body to health with Greece still in it. A respite from market pressure early Monday proved to be short-lived, as investors shifted their attention from political infighting in Athens to the larger question of whether European leaders could find a more lasting solution to a debacle now well into its third year. But even though Brussels had been hoping for the victory by Antonis Samaras and his center-right New Democracy Party, the yearned-for result, paradoxically, may weaken Europe's determination to take more radical steps to avert a meltdown...As a result, the vote may delay concerted pro-growth steps by central banks and governments around the world, as well as the hard choices within Europe over deeper integration that are likely to prove necessary in the long run." Nicholas Kulish and Jack Ewing in The New York Times.
@ObsoleteDogma: It's a good thing the ECB is worrying about structural reforms and not, you know, the continent imploding.
@TheStalwart: Good line I heard from a hedge fund manager last night re: Spain: "So they built too many houses, don't destroy the entire economy over it."
Eurozone members of the G20 will pledge to fight for the euro. "The eurozone members of the Group of 20 leading economies will pledge on Tuesday to 'take all necessary policy measures' to safeguard the single currency, according to leaked drafts of the summit communiqué...According to leaked drafts of the communiqué, the G20 will state: 'The euro area member states at the G20 will take all necessary policy measures to safeguard the integrity and stability of the euro area, including the functioning of financial markets and breaking the feedback loop between sovereigns and banks'...The communiqué does not commit eurozone countries to achieve a banking union, although it supports the consideration of one. 'We support the intention to consider concrete steps towards a more integrated financial architecture, encompassing banking supervision, resolution, and recapitalisation, and deposit insurance,' the draft communiqué says." Chris Giles in The Financial Times.
New pledges will nearly double the IMF's lending power. "Emerging-market nations including China and Brazil formalized funding pledges to the International Monetary Fund, helping to almost double its lending power to protect the world economy from Europe's debt turmoil. With the addition of new pledges from 12 nations that also includes Russia, India and South Africa, the Washington-based lender said it now has received funding commitments of $456 billion, up from the roughly $430 billion it said it had secured in April. The temporary contributions will add to the $380 billion the IMF currently has available for lending...Canada and the U.S. abstained from pitching in for the IMF, despite calls by German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the rest of the world to do more...The second replenishing of the IMF's coffers in three years, while marking a victory for Lagarde, falls short of her initial fundraising goal of $600 billion." Sandrine Rastello in Bloomberg.
Merkel rejected easing Greece's bailout terms. "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece shouldn't be granted leeway on terms for its bailout, rejecting signals from her foreign minister that creditors may relent on austerity measures. The statements by Merkel today at the Group of 20 summit follows a victory in Greek elections for parties supporting the bailout. It clashes with indications made by euro-area finance ministers and German foreign-policy chief Guido Westerwelle, who said Europe could consider giving Greece more time. 'The important thing is that the new government sticks with the commitments that have been made,' Merkel told reporters at the G-20 meeting in the Mexican resort of Los Cabos. 'There can be no loosening on the reform steps.' Merkel, who has rejected a range of crisis-fighting policy options from jointly issued debt to stimulus funding, added a softening of demands on Greece to the list of measures Germany would reject." Tony Czuczka and Patrick Donahue in Bloomberg.
@ObsoleteDogma: It's almost as if Germany is trying to get Greece to leave....
Momentum is growing for a single EU bank supervisor. "A push by EU leaders to create a single supervisor for Europe's largest banks is gaining momentum as support builds for giving the European Central Bank oversight powers in a big step toward 'banking union'. The leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria are willing to back a powerful supranational supervisor, and a decision to relinquish national control over cross-border banks is being prepared for next week's EU summit, according to senior officials. One said the new-found political impetus was 'astonishing'. But big political obstacles remain, including the central supervisor's remit over smaller banks and its ability to deploy the EU's bailout fund to inject capital directly into failing institutions. Currently, EU bank rescue loans must go through national governments, adding to their sovereign debt. The European Commission is pressing for the banking union to be established for all 27 member states." Alex Barker in The Financial Times.
SUMMERS: Europe needs immediate action from the ECB to survive. "During the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis, the Southwest received a transfer from the rest of the country equal to at least 20 percent of the region's GDP. Is there a real willingness to commit to potential transfers of this scale in Europe? Maybe all of this can be resolved, but surely it will not happen quickly...The European Central Bank's credibility will mean little if there is no longer a common currency. Setting the right precedent seemed much more important 24 hours before Lehman Brothers' collapse than 24 hours afterward. Now is the time for radical cuts in the rates official creditors charge European sovereigns; for a willingness to subordinate official debts, not to privilege private creditors but to offer a prospect for systemic preservation; and for expansionary monetary policies in Europe that prevent deflation and encourage the growth that can create jobs and reduce debt. Only if the system is preserved can its future be debated." Lawrence Summers in The Washington Post.
COOLEY ET AL.: European banks need their own TARP. "With bank runs already under way, the immediate requirement is a euro-area Troubled Asset Relief Program like that used in the U.S. to clean up the banks during the 2008 financial crisis...By itself, TARP would have been insufficient. But putting TARP capital into the major banking institutions set the stage for a round of well-organized, transparent stress tests. Perhaps most important, TARP served as a potential backstop to resolve any systemic institutions that proved unable to raise private capital after the publication of stress-test results. The credibility of the tests facilitated a wave of private-equity capital flows into the financial system, making additional TARP injections unnecessary. In Europe, the lack of TARP makes it unrealistic to conduct credible stress tests. No policy maker will announce the insolvency of a bank without being prepared to resolve it." Thomas Cooley, Matthew Richardson, and Kermit Schoenholtz in Bloomberg.
YGLESIAS: Only the European fringes are making economic sense. "Markets were supposed to be reassured. Instead they're freaking out. European stock markets are declining, and Spanish bond yields are back into the 7 percent danger zone. What went wrong? Perhaps the better question to ask is how it ever got to be conventional wisdom that maintaining the Greek status quo was the reassuring option?...Peripheral countries need either more fiscal support from Germany, greater inflation tolerance from Germany, or monetary independence from Germany so they can pursue the former two objectives without active German cooperation. It's easy to see why Germany is not thrilled about these options, but the facts are the facts nonetheless. And the longer the German government and the institutions it controls insist that mainstream parties sign on for the triple-nein, the more inevitable it becomes that extremist groups will take over sooner or later." Matthew Yglesias in Slate.
Top op-eds
1) KLEIN: Bipartisanship remains a DREAM. "In 2001, Sen. Orrin Hatch introduced the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act -- better known as the DREAM Act -- into the Senate. The legislation would've made it possible for the children of undocumented immigrants to gain permanent residency if they stayed out of trouble and went to school or joined the military...More than a decade later, the DREAM Act still hasn't been signed into law. Some of that is simply because of the vagaries of the Senate and the political calendar...But some of it is because the Republican Party has executed an almost total flip-flop on the idea...When Democrats endorse ideas Republican pioneered, that doesn't lead to bipartisanship. When they endorse ideas Republicans currently support, that doesn't lead to bipartisanship. And when they act on their own, that's too partisan. So what, exactly, are they supposed to do?" Ezra Klein in The Washington Post.
2) PONNURU: Grover Norquist is winning. "Discussing hypothetical bargains with 10-to-1 spending cuts, in Norquist's view, is like debating what the best kind of unicorn would be. 'Wouldn't it be nice to have silver-striped unicorns? No one's offered you 10-to-1!' he says, raising his voice in frustration. Norquist may be ticked, but it's not clear that he's losing the political fight. He and his pledge were widely said to be in decline in 2005, when Washington Monthly magazine ran a story called 'Is Grover Over?' It was wishful thinking. Even amid this year's budgetary gloom, Norquist says, only five states have raised taxes. Even in liberal California, pledge-takers in the Legislature managed to block tax increases. In addition to all the members of Congress who have signed the pledge, Norquist tells me as I get up to go, 244 candidates have signed it so far this year -- more than had signed it in the Tea Party election of 2010. An aide comes in: Make that 245. Norquist goes back to smiling: 'We haven't gotten to some people yet.'" Ramesh Ponnuru in Bloomberg.
3) SEIB: The aftermath of the healthcare ruling will be a challenge for all. "Nothing has ever been simple in the great health-care debate, and there's no reason to think the coming Supreme Court decision on the topic, or the political repercussions from it, will be simple either. When the court rules sometime in the next two weeks, the waves it sets off will be tricky for both parties to navigate. A ruling striking down all or part of the law--which is what conventional wisdom anticipates--would be bad news for the Democrats who championed the legislation. What's less appreciated is that a negative ruling also would create new and distinct challenges for Republicans...Until now, the GOP has been in the happy position of being able to oppose the law without facing too much pressure to say what they would do instead. The official Republican position has been 'repeal and replace ObamaCare,' with the focus on 'repeal.' If the law is struck down, attention shifts instantly to what 'replace' means." Gerald Seib in The Wall Street Journal.
4) LANE: Clean energy subsidies have failed. "U.S. energy subsidies -- spending, tax breaks, loan guarantees -- increased from $17.9 billion in fiscal 2007 to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2010, according to the Energy Department. Yet fossil fuels' overwhelming market advantages have produced a litany of clean-energy failures, from electric cars to Solyndra. The subsidies ostensibly address several issues...but without clear priorities, much less rigorous cost-benefit analysis...To the extent that it's coherent at all, the federal energy 'portfolio' represents a return to industrial policy -- governmental selection of economic winners -- which was fashionable in the 1970s and 1980s, before it collapsed under the weight of its intellectual and practical contradictions. As such, current clean-energy programs are no likelier to pay off than President Jimmy Carter's Synthetic Fuels Corp., which blew $9 billion, or President George W. Bush's $1.2 billion program for hydrogen vehicles." Charles Lane in The Washington Post.
5) JOHNSON: The relationship between universities and finance is too close. "Are America's great universities still the stalwart custodians of knowledge, leading forces for technological progress, and providers of opportunity that they once were? Or have they become, in part, unscrupulous accomplices to increasingly rapacious economic elites?...At a recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission roundtable, the banking-sector representative sitting next to me cited a paper by a prominent Stanford University finance professor to support his position against a particular regulation. The banker neglected to mention that the professor was paid $50,000 for the paper by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, SIFMA, a lobby group. (The professor, Darrell Duffie, disclosed the size of this fee and donated it to charity.) Why should we take such work seriously - or any more seriously than other paid consulting work, for example, by a law firm or someone else working for the industry?" Simon Johnson in Project Syndicate.
Instrumental bluegrass interlude: Earl Scruggs plays "Foggy Mountain Breakdown" live at the Camp Springs Bluegrass Festival.
Got tips, additions, or comments? E-mail me.
Still to come: The Fed meets; painkiller regulation fails; the Republican DREAM dies; the farm bill will move forward; and some quite bad drawings of British actors.
Economy
The Fed's policymakers meet today to weigh the next steps. "In retrospect, this might not have been the best week for a long-scheduled meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee. Fed officials will convene Tuesday and Wednesday to decide whether the economy needs more help amid considerable uncertainty about the rate of domestic growth and about the impact of the latest developments in Europe's lingering crisis. The Fed's chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and other committee members suggested in public appearances this month that they were not yet convinced the rate of growth was slowing, nor that another round of aid was warranted. More time and more data might well have provided greater clarity. But the Fed is scheduled to complete this month its most recent effort to reduce interest rates, known as Operation Twist, and financial analysts warn that the central bank, if it does not announce a new program, could disappoint investors who have come to expect intermittent injections of monetary policy." Binyamin Appelbaum in The New York Times.
@BCAppelbaum: Markets want more punch. Is the Fed ready to pour?
They will be wrestling with the U.S.'s credit divide. "The U.S. recovery is hobbled by an economic divide that separates Americans not by income or wealth but by their access to credit. The housing bust left behind millions of people with credit records damaged by plunging home prices, lost jobs, past overspending or bad luck. Many are now walled off from the low interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to spur the economy and remedy the aftereffects of the borrowing boom...Last year, nearly 90% of all new mortgages originated went to households with high credit scores; before the financial crisis, it was about half, according to Moody's Analytics and Equifax Inc., a credit monitoring service. Shrunken access among credit have-nots is triggering more than personal plight. It has weakened the influence of the Fed--one of the best hopes for spurring stronger economic growth--and raised doubts within the central bank about whether it is doing much to reduce unemployment." Jon Hilsenrath in The Wall Street Journal.
@BCAppelbaum: "Last year, nearly 90% of new mortgages went to households with high credit scores; before crisis, it was half."
The recession has hit the underemployed and underpaid. "Throughout the Great Recession and the not-so-great recovery, the most commonly discussed measure of misery has been unemployment. But many middle-class and working-class people who are fortunate enough to have work are struggling as well, which is why Sherry Woods, a 59-year-old van driver from Atlanta, found herself standing in line at a jobs fair this month, with her résumé tucked inside a Bible...These are anxious days for American workers. Many, like Ms. Woods, are underemployed. Others find pay that is simply not keeping up with their expenses: adjusted for inflation, the median hourly wage was lower in 2011 than it was a decade earlier, according to data from a forthcoming book by the Economic Policy Institute, 'The State of Working America, 12th Edition.' Good benefits are harder to come by, and people are staying longer in jobs that they want to leave, afraid that they will not be able to find something better." Michael Cooper in The New York Times.
The CFPB will launch a credit card complaint database. "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday will begin releasing detailed information on Americans' complaints about their credit cards, part of a public database that the agency hopes will be both comprehensive and granular. Complaints are the primary way that most consumers interact with the new agency. The CFPB said it has received more than 45,000 in the year since the bureau was launched. How it handles those complaints -- and how much it makes public -- has been a source of tension between the agency and financial industry groups. Banks have opposed the inclusion of specific companies in the complaints, arguing that many could be unfounded or inaccurate. The database will also only include information for the large banks overseen by the CFPB...The database will include credit card complaints that were made starting June 1, and the agency expects to add older ones by the end of the year." Ylan Mui in The Washington Post.
Tumblr interlude: Terrible Drawings of British Actors.
Health Care
The individual mandate has been in place in Massachusetts for five years. So how has it worked? "Insurance coverage in the state has increased, premiums have decreased and virtually everyone has abided by the new requirement. While public opinion is favorable - two-thirds of Massachusetts residents support the law - the state does face challenges ensuring that the law is affordable. 'What we've seen in Massachusetts, and what the modeling has supported, is that we wouldn't really be where we are today without an insurance mandate,' said Sarah Iselin, president of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Foundation of Massachusetts. 'You can get closer to where we are, but you wouldn't be all the way there.'" Sarah Kliff in the Washington Post.
@asymmetricinfo: Worth remembering that unless something very surprising happens at SC, we'll end up with a Medicaid expansion covering like 18 mm people.
A congressional effort to regulate painkillers appears to have failed. "Efforts to impose stricter controls on prescription drugs that are subject to rampant abuse have apparently failed after a groundswell of lobbying by pharmacists and drugstores, members of Congress said on Monday. The proposed controls, sought by senators and law enforcement officials, would apply to products like hydrocodone that are used for the treatment of moderate to severe pain. The Senate approved the new restrictions last month as part of a bill reauthorizing user fees for the Food and Drug Administration. The House version of the legislation does not address the issue. House and Senate negotiators announced Monday night that they had reached a bipartisan agreement on the overall bill, and said they hoped Congress would approve it by the end of the month. Abuse of prescription medications has risen sharply in the last decade, with hydrocodone products among those most often misused, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration." Robert Pear in The New York Times.
@sahilkapur: No health care ruling today. Justices still combing through the Wikipedia page on the Commerce Clause. It's long.
Domestic Policy
Marco Rubio's version of the DREAM Act looks dead. "For Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the DREAM is over for now. President Barack Obama's move to allow some children of illegal immigrants to remain in the United States appears to have sunk Rubio's effort to push forward a Republican version of the so-called DREAM Act before the November elections...Rubio was in intense discussions with senior Republicans, such as Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl and Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, in the hopes of introducing a bill to legalize undocumented children brought to the United States at an early age provided they have no criminal record and have completed high school. It would have granted them 'non-immigrant' visas, allowing them to stay in the country and access the existing immigration system, through which they could eventually become green card holders or naturalized citizens. But Rubio had not introduced legislation, only speaking in broad terms about the plan and engaging in early discussions with the Congressional Budget Office about its scope." Manu Raju in Politico.
A teachers union is entering the online lesson sharing market. "Teachers seeking lesson plans on anything from fractions and multiplication tables to Shakespeare or the Civil War can take to the Internet for a boundless array of work sheets, reading lists and classroom tips, available free or for a fee. Now the American Federation of Teachers is forming a partnership with TSL Education, the British publisher of the weekly Times Educational Supplement, to create a Web site where teachers can share curriculum materials with one another. In a somewhat belated entry to a market overflowing with online educational advice, the teachers' union believes that its site, to be called sharemylesson.com, will become a go-to destination because of the union's imprimatur...Teachers will be able to upload anything from a simple work sheet to an entire semester unit, as well as PowerPoint presentations and videos. Other teachers can then rate the resources, and the site's algorithm will rank the most popular and well-reviewed lessons." Motoko Rich in The New York Times.
Legos are excellent interlude: A LEGO Turing Machine.
Energy
The Senate reached an agreement letting the farm bill move forward. "In a major breakthrough, the Senate approved a sweeping consent agreement Monday night that clears the way for action on the farm bill this week after what promises to be a marathon series of votes on about 73 amendments -- including several non-germane proposals demanded by Republicans...Crop insurance, sugar price supports, and food stamps will all be subject to multiple challenges testing their political support. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is promised a vote on his RAISE Act amending labor law to give employers greater ability to reward performance bonuses. And side-by-side amendments -- including one sought by Sen. John McCain R-Ariz.) -- will be permitted regarding the administration's preparations for the threat of automatic spending cuts in January...The agreement is a genuine triumph for Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who now has the certainty she wanted of getting to final Senate passage." David Rogers in Politico.
@mkraju: Senate locks in a vote-a-rama to end all vote-a-ramas: votes on 73 amendments and final passage of the farm bill
The White House issued a veto threat for a plan to overturn a pollution rule. "The White House said Monday that it would likely veto a GOP-led plan to overturn Environmental Protection Agency regulations that require cuts in mercury and other toxic emissions from coal-fired power plants. The Senate is slated to vote this week on Sen. James Inhofe's (R-Okla.) resolution to overturn the regulations that were finalized late last year. A formal White House 'statement of administration policy' issued Monday says Inhofe's plan, if successful, would 'cause substantial harm to public health and undermine our nation's longstanding commitment to clean up pollution from power plants.' It says that if the plan reached Obama's desk, his senior advisers would recommend that he veto it...Inhofe's resolution under the Congressional Review Act is immune from filibuster, and he's expected to pick up the votes of at least three conservative Democrats. But he's nonetheless unlikely to win the majority vote needed for passage. A vote is expected Wednesday." Ben Geman in The Hill.
Expectations are low for the Earth Summit. "Global leaders, development experts, bankers, academics and activists are gathering here this week to celebrate the anniversary of the landmark Earth Summit of 1992 and to try to address the linked problems of poverty, hunger, energy shortages and environmental degradation. But the conference -- expected to draw as many as 50,000 participants -- is in many ways overshadowed by economic and political crises around the world. While more than 100 heads of state and government are planning to attend the formal talks starting Wednesday, President Obama, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany are staying away, preoccupied by domestic politics and the financial turmoil in Europe. As a result, while diplomats feverishly negotiate a complex 80-page document spelling out the meeting's goals, there are few expectations for concrete actions or pledges of new aid to developing countries." Simon Romero and John Broder in The New York Times.
Wonkbook is compiled and produced with help from Karl Singer and Michelle Williams.
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