S.C.'s electorate could make Mitt a lock for GOP nomination
http://dervishcom.blogspot.com/2012/01/scs-electorate-could-make-mitt-lock-for.html
SPARTANBURG, S.C. -- Can Mitt Romney, a Michigan-born Mormon who governed with Democrats in liberal Massachusetts, score a knockout in Christian, conservative South Carolina in Saturday's primary and become all but certain to claim his party's presidential nomination?
Yes, and part of the reason is this: You can't believe all you've heard or read about the state. South Carolina politics aren't as conservative or monolithic -- i.e. dominated by born-again or evangelical Christians -- as the state's political reputation suggests.
"The truth of the matter is South Carolina has become so cosmopolitan, we don't really have a singular Southern identity," said Gloria Morris, 84, a retired high school English teacher in Aiken who supports Romney.
There's no question Republicans rule in South Carolina, winning the last eight presidential elections. And although the state's politics tilt conservative, only four in 10 voters called themselves evangelical or born-again Christians in 2008 election exit polls.
Romney, leading by from 2 to 7 percentage points over his nearest opponent in polls last week, has the advantage of momentum, having pulled off a rare one-two punch in Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. He also has the most money, the deepest organization and, not insignificant, the endorsement of Nikki Haley, South Carolina's popular governor.
If he wins, Romney, already the favorite to win the nomination, becomes a lock.
Still, it won't be easy with the rest of the field all gunning for him, led by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has said South Carolina is make or break for his campaign.
An independent political action committee supporting Gingrich is spending $5 million attacking Romney, including a half-hour film savaging his track record at Bain Capital, a venture capital firm Romney led. On Saturday, Gingrich, campaigning in Florida, asked the so-called Super PAC to correct inaccuracies in the ad or take it down.
On Friday, Gingrich cautioned an audience in Duncan, "If we end up splitting the conservative vote, we're going to stumble into nominating someone 95 percent of the people in this room won't be happy with."
Former front-runner Gingrich, who finished out of the top three spots in Iowa and New Hampshire, is splitting the conservative base with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and -- to a lesser extent -- the weakened candidacy of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
If Romney falters in South Carolina, it will encourage rivals to remain in the race, making him seem vulnerable and lengthening an already expensive, brutal primary campaign. The next primary is Florida on Jan. 31.
Morris, the 84-year-old retired teacher, wants Romney to make a strong case Saturday.
She was cheering for Romney at a college in Spartanburg on Friday along with hundreds of students and other supporters. A self-described moderate who thinks abortion is acceptable in cases of rape or incest, Morris cites Romney's integrity, lack of scandal, fiscal conservatism and business success as reasons he wins her vote. And, just as important, she thinks he can win against President Barack Obama in November.
"He's the man as far as I'm concerned," she said. "I think he is the only person who can beat Obama."
The lay of the land
South Carolina's political topography is as diverse as its geography. Along the Atlantic Ocean, in urban centers such as Charleston and Myrtle Beach, Republicanism is strong, but it's the more fiscally conservative, socially moderate bent, diluted, in part, by an influx of retirees -- including a lot of ex-military.
Upstate, in the state's northwest corner, industry has taken hold -- the BMW plant here just announced a $900 million investment to expand a plant that should create 300 new jobs -- but it remains more socially and fiscally conservative.
Bob Jones University, founded by an evangelist, is in Greenville -- Romney's toughest challenge.
"A lot of us just do not trust him," said Patricia Wavle, 68, of Taylors. "I just don't believe that he's real."
Wavle and her husband, Doug, 67, went to Byrnes High School on Friday night for a forum with Gingrich and Pennsylvania, getting plates of pulled pork with sides of baked beans and cole slaw. It was a friendly crowd -- the Wavles and their son-in-law, David Gibble, a soil and water conservation commissioner in Greenville County -- started talking to a reporter unsolicited, discussing the candidates. They said a small prayer before eating their meals.
All three had been Herman Cain supporters before the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza dropped out. Now, Gibble is tentatively backing Santorum and his parents-in-law are looking at Gingrich.
"Gingrich and Santorum, that's my dream ticket," said Doug Wavle, thinking such a deal could help conservative voters pool their numbers.
Political tactics aside, he has a point. In 2008, Greenville and Spartanburg counties accounted for about one-fifth of the GOP primary vote, and both went to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a favorite among Christian evangelicals. But it was the eventual nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who won the state, taking the coast and much of the central part of the state as Huckabee split the vote with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Romney was fourth.
"There are two distinct brands of conservatives in this state," said political consultant Bob McAlister, who worked with McCain's campaign in 2008. "Conservatives split the vote, and that's why we were able to win the South Carolina primary."
The only way to win is for a candidate to consolidate like-minded voters. Exit polls in 2008 showed 39 percent of voters considered themselves evangelical or born-again Christians, more than Michigan's 27 percent, but far less than the 53 percent in Arkansas.
But they still present a potent voting bloc.
"Were I Santorum, I would put up a tent in the Upstate," McAlister said.
Attack ads may backfire
If Gingrich wins, he'll look to big backers to stake him in Florida and hope the anyone-but-Romney crowd embraces him, again. One change in the nominating process, giving losing candidates a proportional share of delegates rather than the former winner-take-all method, could extend the process and make Michigan's scheduled Feb. 28 primary relevant.
But if Gingrich is banking on his surrogates' Romney attack ads to turn around the race (he says Romney ads that were unfair sent his candidacy reeling in December), some voters say they're turned off.
"I really like Newt, but I think he really screwed up," said Zipper Robbins, 69, of Aiken, who is backing Romney. He and others view the ads as an attack on free enterprise -- something they'd expect from the Obama campaign, not a fellow Republican.
"I hear a lot more people saying, 'I guess I'll just go for Romney,' " said Det Haislip, 58, who owns a True Value Hardware and Appliances store in Aiken. A Romney supporter -- with a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee in his office -- Haislip's place is a stop on the political parade through the state.
"I just think he's solid from top to bottom," Haislip said of Romney.
Even in the northwest corner, Romney has supporters. Alice Lang, 50, teaches English to international students at a local college. She switched to Romney after Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann withdrew from the race,
Romney's Mormon faith, meanwhile, doesn't seem to be as much as an issue as some thought it might be.
"I don't care what his religion is, he's not my preacher," said Joanne King, 45, whose family owns the Leaf and Match tobacconist in Greenville and who is still undecided. "They (people) need to go to church for their religion, not the White House."
Ask Alan Clemmons whether South Carolina can support a Mormon.
He's a state representative from Myrtle Beach, and he's a Mormon.
"I think I'm probably proof that the answer to that question is yes," said Clemmons, who plans to vote for Perry. "I think a lot of outsiders give South Carolina little credit for open-mindedness. The fact is, faith is important in South Carolina -- we're the buckle on the Bible Belt. But in my opinion, the acid test in South Carolina is, 'Are you a person of faith?' Beyond that, I think most people are satisfied when the answer is yes."
In the coming week, the campaign in South Carolina will intensify. But Romney's campaign is beginning to take on a look of inevitability, a momentum that feeds on itself.
"The more he's seen as the candidate, the more support he's going to get," said David Wilkins of Greenville, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President George W. Bush.
Bill McCullough, 51, of Simpsonville is an electrical contractor, a Christian, and he's backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Sitting at the Beacon restaurant in Spartanburg, enjoying the sliced pork and onion rings, he says Paul's message of fiscal discipline and pulling troops and money back from overseas resonates. But he said he thinks Romney's the one with the money, and expects he'll win.
All he'll say is that he hopes for the best if that happens.
"I hope Romney's good for his word," he said.
Yes, and part of the reason is this: You can't believe all you've heard or read about the state. South Carolina politics aren't as conservative or monolithic -- i.e. dominated by born-again or evangelical Christians -- as the state's political reputation suggests.
"The truth of the matter is South Carolina has become so cosmopolitan, we don't really have a singular Southern identity," said Gloria Morris, 84, a retired high school English teacher in Aiken who supports Romney.
There's no question Republicans rule in South Carolina, winning the last eight presidential elections. And although the state's politics tilt conservative, only four in 10 voters called themselves evangelical or born-again Christians in 2008 election exit polls.
Romney, leading by from 2 to 7 percentage points over his nearest opponent in polls last week, has the advantage of momentum, having pulled off a rare one-two punch in Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. He also has the most money, the deepest organization and, not insignificant, the endorsement of Nikki Haley, South Carolina's popular governor.
If he wins, Romney, already the favorite to win the nomination, becomes a lock.
Still, it won't be easy with the rest of the field all gunning for him, led by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has said South Carolina is make or break for his campaign.
An independent political action committee supporting Gingrich is spending $5 million attacking Romney, including a half-hour film savaging his track record at Bain Capital, a venture capital firm Romney led. On Saturday, Gingrich, campaigning in Florida, asked the so-called Super PAC to correct inaccuracies in the ad or take it down.
On Friday, Gingrich cautioned an audience in Duncan, "If we end up splitting the conservative vote, we're going to stumble into nominating someone 95 percent of the people in this room won't be happy with."
Former front-runner Gingrich, who finished out of the top three spots in Iowa and New Hampshire, is splitting the conservative base with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and -- to a lesser extent -- the weakened candidacy of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
If Romney falters in South Carolina, it will encourage rivals to remain in the race, making him seem vulnerable and lengthening an already expensive, brutal primary campaign. The next primary is Florida on Jan. 31.
Morris, the 84-year-old retired teacher, wants Romney to make a strong case Saturday.
She was cheering for Romney at a college in Spartanburg on Friday along with hundreds of students and other supporters. A self-described moderate who thinks abortion is acceptable in cases of rape or incest, Morris cites Romney's integrity, lack of scandal, fiscal conservatism and business success as reasons he wins her vote. And, just as important, she thinks he can win against President Barack Obama in November.
"He's the man as far as I'm concerned," she said. "I think he is the only person who can beat Obama."
The lay of the land
South Carolina's political topography is as diverse as its geography. Along the Atlantic Ocean, in urban centers such as Charleston and Myrtle Beach, Republicanism is strong, but it's the more fiscally conservative, socially moderate bent, diluted, in part, by an influx of retirees -- including a lot of ex-military.
Upstate, in the state's northwest corner, industry has taken hold -- the BMW plant here just announced a $900 million investment to expand a plant that should create 300 new jobs -- but it remains more socially and fiscally conservative.
Bob Jones University, founded by an evangelist, is in Greenville -- Romney's toughest challenge.
"A lot of us just do not trust him," said Patricia Wavle, 68, of Taylors. "I just don't believe that he's real."
Wavle and her husband, Doug, 67, went to Byrnes High School on Friday night for a forum with Gingrich and Pennsylvania, getting plates of pulled pork with sides of baked beans and cole slaw. It was a friendly crowd -- the Wavles and their son-in-law, David Gibble, a soil and water conservation commissioner in Greenville County -- started talking to a reporter unsolicited, discussing the candidates. They said a small prayer before eating their meals.
All three had been Herman Cain supporters before the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza dropped out. Now, Gibble is tentatively backing Santorum and his parents-in-law are looking at Gingrich.
"Gingrich and Santorum, that's my dream ticket," said Doug Wavle, thinking such a deal could help conservative voters pool their numbers.
Political tactics aside, he has a point. In 2008, Greenville and Spartanburg counties accounted for about one-fifth of the GOP primary vote, and both went to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a favorite among Christian evangelicals. But it was the eventual nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who won the state, taking the coast and much of the central part of the state as Huckabee split the vote with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Romney was fourth.
"There are two distinct brands of conservatives in this state," said political consultant Bob McAlister, who worked with McCain's campaign in 2008. "Conservatives split the vote, and that's why we were able to win the South Carolina primary."
The only way to win is for a candidate to consolidate like-minded voters. Exit polls in 2008 showed 39 percent of voters considered themselves evangelical or born-again Christians, more than Michigan's 27 percent, but far less than the 53 percent in Arkansas.
But they still present a potent voting bloc.
"Were I Santorum, I would put up a tent in the Upstate," McAlister said.
Attack ads may backfire
If Gingrich wins, he'll look to big backers to stake him in Florida and hope the anyone-but-Romney crowd embraces him, again. One change in the nominating process, giving losing candidates a proportional share of delegates rather than the former winner-take-all method, could extend the process and make Michigan's scheduled Feb. 28 primary relevant.
But if Gingrich is banking on his surrogates' Romney attack ads to turn around the race (he says Romney ads that were unfair sent his candidacy reeling in December), some voters say they're turned off.
"I really like Newt, but I think he really screwed up," said Zipper Robbins, 69, of Aiken, who is backing Romney. He and others view the ads as an attack on free enterprise -- something they'd expect from the Obama campaign, not a fellow Republican.
"I hear a lot more people saying, 'I guess I'll just go for Romney,' " said Det Haislip, 58, who owns a True Value Hardware and Appliances store in Aiken. A Romney supporter -- with a portrait of Gen. Robert E. Lee in his office -- Haislip's place is a stop on the political parade through the state.
"I just think he's solid from top to bottom," Haislip said of Romney.
Even in the northwest corner, Romney has supporters. Alice Lang, 50, teaches English to international students at a local college. She switched to Romney after Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann withdrew from the race,
Romney's Mormon faith, meanwhile, doesn't seem to be as much as an issue as some thought it might be.
"I don't care what his religion is, he's not my preacher," said Joanne King, 45, whose family owns the Leaf and Match tobacconist in Greenville and who is still undecided. "They (people) need to go to church for their religion, not the White House."
Ask Alan Clemmons whether South Carolina can support a Mormon.
He's a state representative from Myrtle Beach, and he's a Mormon.
"I think I'm probably proof that the answer to that question is yes," said Clemmons, who plans to vote for Perry. "I think a lot of outsiders give South Carolina little credit for open-mindedness. The fact is, faith is important in South Carolina -- we're the buckle on the Bible Belt. But in my opinion, the acid test in South Carolina is, 'Are you a person of faith?' Beyond that, I think most people are satisfied when the answer is yes."
In the coming week, the campaign in South Carolina will intensify. But Romney's campaign is beginning to take on a look of inevitability, a momentum that feeds on itself.
"The more he's seen as the candidate, the more support he's going to get," said David Wilkins of Greenville, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President George W. Bush.
Bill McCullough, 51, of Simpsonville is an electrical contractor, a Christian, and he's backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Sitting at the Beacon restaurant in Spartanburg, enjoying the sliced pork and onion rings, he says Paul's message of fiscal discipline and pulling troops and money back from overseas resonates. But he said he thinks Romney's the one with the money, and expects he'll win.
All he'll say is that he hopes for the best if that happens.
"I hope Romney's good for his word," he said.
